In terms of long-term large-scale impact on consumer computing, the iPad is the most significant new computing platform to launch in over 20 years, with the possible exception of the Web, depending on your definitions. Really. Even if the iPad itself ultimately ends up as a minor player in the tablet market, it will likely be the device that takes tablets mainstream, like as the Mac did for the GUI. Why is this a big deal? It’s a big deal because this form factor has been anticipated for over 40 years both in fiction (see, for instance, 2001) and by human/computer interaction designers (see, for instance, the Dynabook), and will likely have a major impact on the shape of computing over the next couple of decades.
In terms of how users interact with computers, the iPad is the most significant thing since the mouse and the modern GUI. You could credit the iPhone for the multitouch revolution, of course, but I think the the phone form factor is just too limited to develop the full vocabulary required for touch-based UI to really come into its own. The iPad is the first platform that will enable that.
And there’s even a bit more to the iPad than that. The iPad isn’t just a new device built along the same model as traditional computers but with a new form factor and primary interaction mechanism. Put together the simple model lineup, the lack of focus on geeky tech specs, the elimination of the file system as a user-level concern, the system-level automatic application installation, removal, and updating… and the iPad is also clearly a major push toward the sort of appliance-like personal computing that many have tried for over the years, but none have previously achieved.
Now, I understand perfectly well that these kinds of predictions are easy to dismiss. That’s sort of the nature of the thing; if this were all obvious, there wouldn’t be much point in writing about it. But large chunks of the web get archived, and we’ll see in five or ten years just who saw what was coming, and who didn’t.
